#美联储货币政策 Looking back at the Volcker era in the early 1980s, the Federal Reserve also adopted a tight monetary policy to combat inflation. Now, seeing Williams hint at a possible rate cut in December, I can’t help but feel that history always repeats itself. However, the current economic environment is vastly different from forty years ago. Globalization and technological advancements have brought deflationary pressures, making inflation less of a pressing issue.

From past experience, a shift in Federal Reserve policy is often an important signal for a market turning point. If rate cuts really do begin in December, it could indicate the start of a new bull market cycle. However, we should also be wary of the risks that excessive optimism may bring. After all, there is often a gap between market expectations and actual policy decisions—the dot-com bubble in 2000 and the 2008 financial crisis serve as cautionary tales.

For the current market, my advice is to remain cautiously optimistic. On one hand, you can moderately increase your allocation to risk assets; on the other hand, you should also be well-prepared for risk management. After all, in this rapidly changing era, past experience may not always apply. We need to stay alert at all times and adjust our strategies as needed in order to stand firm amidst the market’s ups and downs.