The market is fixated on the Fed rate cuts, and expectations are heating up, but don’t forget that hard data like the nonfarm payrolls is what truly drives policy decisions. If the meeting data doesn’t look good enough, it’s entirely possible for the Fed to postpone its decision.

BTC is stuck in a range at the highs, and honestly, whether rates are cut or not, the short-term outlook isn’t great. If there’s a cut? Then we’ll probably see the classic “sell the news” scenario, and a pullback is almost inevitable. But looking at the bigger picture, if quantitative tightening really ends, there’s still a solid case for a renewed rally later on. If there’s no cut? Then market expectations will be dashed, and BTC will likely test deeper support levels, with even more direct pressure.

All in all, at this level, it’s tricky whether the price goes up or down, so it’s best to stay cautious with your trades.