On a macro level, positive catalysts may not come immediately, but the negative factors may have already been exhausted.

Someone asked: Does a rate cut in December mean that all the good news has already been priced in?
My view is quite the opposite—it’s more like the negative news has been exhausted for now.
But to be clear: Negative news being exhausted ≠ immediate rally.

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➤ The Fed has essentially entered an easing cycle
✅ Quantitative tightening (QT) officially ends on December 1
Whether the upcoming moves are “intermittent cuts” or “consecutive cuts,”
This all means: the US dollar has entered an easing cycle.

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➤ Banks facing “liquidity shortages despite high interest rates” is one of the key reasons for rate cuts
Many people don’t understand:
Why can banks still have a “cash shortage” under high interest rates?
The logic is actually simple 👇

High interest rates → Higher funding costs for banks

But the economy isn’t overheating → Loans are harder to issue

Interest margins are compressed → Liquidity gets tight in some areas

A key piece of evidence is:
📌 This year has already seen multiple jumbo overnight repos

June: $11 billion

October: $29.4 billion

Recently: $13.5 billion

This shows—
The “cash crunch” in the US banking system isn’t a coincidence, but a structural pressure.

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✅ In short:
Macro headwinds have most likely been exhausted for now, but whether the market will rally immediately still needs a new round of genuine positive catalysts.
The market isn’t lacking money right now,
It’s lacking that one match to ignite it. 🔥
#btc