Let's talk about the issue everyone is most anxious about right now: Will inflation spiral out of control again?

Let me put my conclusion up front: This round of inflation looks more like a “temporary rebound,” and the probability of it turning into sustained high inflation is not high.

Let’s break it down point by point—

1️⃣ The Most Easily Misunderstood Point

Many people think: As long as monetary policy is loose = there will definitely be high inflation But that’s not how it works in reality.

Over a decade ago, throughout the 2010s, the US had ultra-low interest rates + massive money printing, yet inflation remained low for a long time.

👉 shows one thing: Inflation is primarily a “supply issue,” and only secondarily a “monetary issue.”

2️⃣ Why Say “Inflation Is Primarily a Supply Issue”?

The two major episodes of high inflation in history were essentially not caused solely by money printing:

🔸 1970s high inflation → oil embargo, energy supply disruption 🔸 2022 high inflation → pandemic shock to global supply chains 💰 Massive money printing was just an “accelerant,” not the “ignition point”

And after 2023: ✅ Supply recovered ✅ The overall trend in inflation is downward This slight uptick in Q3 this year is mostly: 👉 The pass-through effect of tariffs raising goods costs, not a “renewed supply disruption.”

So this round of inflation: ⚠️ Is cost-push inflation ✅ Not systemic runaway inflation

3️⃣ Inflation Structure Makes It Even Clearer

Inflation is mainly divided into three parts: 🔋 Energy 📦 Goods 🏠 Services (including housing + supercore)

The current reality is: ✅ Energy is fluctuating at the bottom ✅ Housing inflation was weakening before October (interest rates are still high) ✅ Supercore inflation remains stable (consumption is still holding up) 📦 The real driver of the recent small uptick in inflation— is still the rise in goods costs passed through by tariffs

And critically: 👉 The pass-through is slower than the market expected 👉 So before October, even though CPI ticked up, it was consistently below expectations

4️⃣ Another Key Variable: The Base Effect

Inflation is “relative data”: 📊 Year-over-year compares to last year 📈 Month-over-month compares to last month

After a round of cost increases has been fully passed through:

• The base will be raised
• Even if prices stay high and don’t rise further, 👉 Year-over-year and month-over-month figures will naturally fall back

Although: ✅ In absolute terms, prices will inevitably trend upward in the long run (Since the 1970s, US prices have tripled) But this is long-term mild inflation, not runaway.

A piece of good news now is: ✅ The “effective tariff rate” is basically stable at just over ten percent ✅ And there is still the possibility of further exemptions

5️⃣ Politics Is the “True Ceiling” for Inflation

Trump’s approval rating has recently dropped sharply, and the core reason for the steepest decline is just one thing—inflation + people’s livelihood.

This is a life-or-death issue for the 2026 midterms.

So you can already see: ✅ Agricultural tariff exemptions ✅ Strong pressure on drug prices ✅ More action will be taken on “inflation-sensitive goods” going forward

👉 My expectation: At some point next year, the month-over-month goods inflation may even turn negative. Only a negative month-over-month figure is a true “decline in prices.”

6️⃣ Timing Judgement (The Honest Version)

The previous assessment was: 📌 Q4 inflation would slowly rise 📌 A cyclical high would be reached at the end of the year or early next year 📌 Then it would fall back

But the current issue is: ⚠️ Two-month government shutdown → data vacuum ⚠️ We’ll have to wait for November inflation data to confirm the turning point

So the only conclusion can be: 👉 The direction can be judged, but the specific turning point can only be assessed step by step.

🎯 Final Summary Sentence

✅ This uptick in inflation is temporary ❌ The probability of it turning into the kind of “sustained high inflation” seen in the 1970s or 2022 is low 📉 The real turning point depends on: Tariff policy + whether month-over-month goods inflation turns negative

One sentence for those currently anxious about inflation: This time, it’s more like “catching a breath,” not “getting hit again.”