For the past thirty years, Japan has maintained near-zero interest rates, releasing an astonishing amount of cheap liquidity into global markets—totaling nearly $20 trillion. This capital has flowed into various assets through carry trades, including stocks, bonds, real estate, and cryptocurrencies, becoming one of the most overlooked yet far-reaching forces driving global bubbles.

However, this situation is set to reach a historic turning point in December 2025. The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds has climbed to 1.86%, marking a new high since 2008. The market widely expects a 76% probability that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates this month, signaling the imminent end of decades-long low interest rates.

As the yen begins to appreciate, massive carry trade positions are being unwound en masse. The reversal of $20 trillion in capital flows has begun. While many have hailed Bitcoin as "digital gold," in terms of capital flows, it resembles one of the most aggressive leveraged bets in yen carry trades. When the yen strengthens, these high-risk assets are often the first to experience sharp corrections.