#ETH走势分析 The Fusaka upgrade is coming tonight. Are all you coin holders ready?

ETH has recently climbed back above $3,000, and the entire crypto market is taking off, with the total market cap heading straight for $3.2 trillion. There’s more to this rally than meets the eye, with several forces at play simultaneously.

First, let’s talk about the major technical event. Ethereum’s upcoming Fusaka upgrade is primarily aimed at optimizing the gas fee mechanism and speeding up Layer 2 networks. On-chain data is telling: over the past 7 days, more than 150,000 ETH has been withdrawn from major exchanges and moved into cold wallets. What does this indicate? Holders are betting on an ecosystem explosion after the upgrade.

Next, look at the ripple effects in the derivatives market. When BTC broke through $93,000, the shorts got liquidated on the spot—according to the BRN research team, about $430 million in BTC shorts were force liquidated. Their head of research, Timothy Misir, has a point: leverage liquidations are like dominoes and tend to multiply short-term price swings several times over. This surge in ETH is largely driven by this wave of technical buying.

The funding side is telling its own story too. In the US, spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen net inflows for five consecutive days, totaling $58.5 million. BlackRock’s IBIT alone brought in $24 million in a single day, showing institutions are clearly still adding to their positions. More importantly, about 12% of these funds are spilling over into Ethereum-related products—money is circulating within the ecosystem, which naturally supports prices.

But let’s stay calm, as risks are just as apparent. How effective will the Fusaka upgrade actually be? History tells us that, within 30 days after a major upgrade, ETH’s price volatility on average surges by 58%. Right now, long positions make up 67% of the derivatives market, and such extreme positioning is prone to profit-taking.

There’s also an external variable—the Fed’s July rate meeting is coming up. If a hawkish signal emerges, risk assets could take a serious hit.

The current situation is delicate: news is indeed optimistic, but technically the market is already overbought. It’s wise to keep a close eye on ETH’s $2,850 support level and BTC’s $90,000 psychological threshold. Changes in exchange reserves and ETF fund flows are the most direct sentiment thermometers in the short term.