Everyone is waiting for the Fed’s interest rate cut decision next week, but ironically, the official nonfarm payroll and inflation data have been “cut off.” Now, both the market and the Fed are flying blind in thick fog—they simply can’t see the real state of the US economy.

Tonight at 21:15, the US November ADP employment data will be released. This is currently the only important clue to hold onto, and all eyes are on this moment. The logic is simple: the worse the employment data, the stronger the rate cut expectations, and the more likely risk assets are to rebound. Currently, the probability of a rate cut in December has already exceeded 80%.

My view is that no matter whether the data is good or bad, the market will most likely experience sharp volatility. But this kind of rebound is often “emotional speculation plus short covering,” and it’s hard to change the core trend. Retail investors should not chase the rally impulsively—if you have profits, take them quickly, and make sure to manage your positions well.

The market is like a fully drawn bow; tonight’s result will decide whether you feast or get hurt. Stay calm and quickly close any knowledge gaps!