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Macroeconomic factors have caused a clear divergence between the two: the overnight financing rate (SOFR) is close to 4.0%, the Treasury General Account (TGA) remains at a high level, global liquidity is constrained, and systemic financial stress is rising. Investor demand for risk assets has weakened, while demand for safe-haven assets has rebounded, driving gold prices higher. At the same time, financial market volatility and the unwinding of arbitrage trades have intensified short-term pressure on Bitcoin.

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