#美联储降息预期 Looking back at the Federal Reserve’s historical decisions, I can’t help but recall the period following the 2008 financial crisis. At that time, rate cuts were the main tool to address economic downturns. But now, the situation seems to be different. Collins is cautious about a rate cut in December, which reminds me of the slow rate hike cycle in 2015-2016.

Currently, inflationary pressures persist and the job market remains strong, which is quite different from the economic environment before previous rate cuts. From past experience, the Fed typically waits for clear signs of economic slowdown before taking action to cut rates.

Right now, the market’s expectations for rate cuts may be a bit too optimistic. I think we should focus more on changes in economic fundamentals rather than over-interpreting every official statement. After all, a policy shift by the Fed is usually a gradual process, not a sudden change.

This also reminds me of the early 2000s. At that time, the market had high expectations for rate cuts, but the Fed’s actual actions came later and were smaller than expected. History keeps repeating itself, but each time with new variables. We need to learn to observe historical patterns while also paying attention to the current unique economic environment.