Bitcoin rebounds + Fed rate cut expectations soar. Is there still potential for a rally at the end of the year?

Question

[BlockBeats] Although the start of December has been a bit bumpy, trading enthusiasm still seems to be alive. Bitcoin has recently climbed back from its losses, and US tech stocks also rose on Tuesday, completely reversing the previous day’s pullback—which, by the way, had interrupted a five-day winning streak.

What does this rebound indicate? The market’s risk appetite hasn’t cooled off; it just needed a breather.

Even more interesting, other signals suggest there may still be action as the year ends. CME data shows that the market now sees an 89.2% chance of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points at the December 10 meeting. A month ago? The odds were basically 50-50.

Wells Fargo global equity strategist Doug Beath put it plainly: “As long as nothing goes wrong, the market is refocusing on fundamentals.” Right now, people are paying attention to Q4 and 2026 earnings forecasts—which are both better than expected. Investors are already looking beyond this soft patch, starting to anticipate an acceleration in growth in the second half of next year.

If you had to sum up the year-end market in one phrase, it would probably be: cautiously optimistic. This sentiment is working hard to drown out the market’s noisy distractions.

SerumSquirter · Accepted Answer

89.2% probability? Now it's not a fifty-fifty chance anymore, that's something. The Fed is really getting serious.

SatoshiHeir · Answer

It should be noted that this 89.2% probability essentially reflects a collective illusion of the market—based on first principles outlined in the white paper, monetary policy easing has always been a case of drinking poison to quench thirst. However, I must admit that in the short term, this kind of expectation-driven sentiment can indeed boost risk assets. This is the paradox of our era.

probably_nothing_anon · Answer

89.2% probability? That number has risen pretty sharply. If the Fed suddenly sends a dovish signal, I’d have to laugh.

GateUser-c799715c · Answer

With a probability of 89.2%, it basically feels like saying "there's a high chance it will drop." Hopefully, the Fed doesn’t pull any tricks—we're just waiting to cash in on this wave of profits.

MevWhisperer · Answer

89.2%—this probability is really a bit outrageous. Just a month ago, it was a 50/50 chance... Is the Fed really about to start quantitative easing this time?

ArbitrageBot · Answer

89.2% probability? Feels like you're setting me up again... Last time when it was fifty-fifty, you said the same thing, and look how that turned out.

GateUser-addcaaf7 · Answer

89.2% probability? Damn, they're really going to cut rates this time. No problem making a push at the end of the year.