#美联储货币政策 Looking back on the past, I can't help but feel a surge of emotions. The changes in the Fed's monetary policy resemble a dramatic play full of ups and downs. From quantitative easing after the 2008 financial crisis, to the gradual rate hikes starting in 2015, then the resumption of rate cuts in 2019, and again significant easing after the outbreak of the pandemic in 2020, and a radical rate hike in 2022 due to inflation. Now, there are signs of rate cuts again.

In recent days, several Fed officials have released dovish signals. Collins expects further interest rate cuts, Williams believes there is still a possibility of rate cuts in the short term, and Mylan even expressed support for a 25 basis point cut. The market's bets on a rate cut in December have also increased to 54%. This inevitably reminds me of a similar situation in 2019.

At that time, economic growth slowed, trade frictions intensified, and the Fed initiated a "preventive interest rate cut" in July. Now, although inflation has eased somewhat, it is still above the target, and there is uncertainty in the economic outlook; the Fed seems to be at a similar crossroads again.

History is always strikingly similar. Each round of the policy cycle seeks a balance between the economy, inflation, and employment. Now, the Fed may be facing a choice similar to that of 2019: should it prepare for a rainy day and prevent future problems?

However, we must also be wary of overinterpretation. Shortly after the three rate cuts in 2019, the pandemic broke out, disrupting all expectations. This reminds us that while the statements of policymakers are certainly important, we should pay more attention to changes in the fundamentals. After all, history does not simply repeat itself, but evolves in new ways.

For those of us who have experienced multiple cycles of bull and bear markets, maintaining a cautiously optimistic attitude and keeping up with the times may be the best choice. After all, no matter how policies change, opportunities always favor those who are prepared.