Is Bitcoin Breaking Free From Its Four-Year Cycle? Grayscale's Bold Prediction for 2026

Source: CoinTribune Original Title: 13.5B Fed Injection Fails To Move Bitcoin Price Original Link: https://www.cointribune.com/en/13-5b-fed-injection-fails-to-move-bitcoin-price/

The Challenge to Bitcoin’s Historical Cycle

Grayscale, a major asset manager, has put forward an unexpected hypothesis in a recent report: Bitcoin could break free from its historical four-year cycle as early as 2026, reaching new heights well before the usual deadline. This challenges a pillar of crypto analysis and has sparked both hope and questions in a rapidly evolving market.

The company questions Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle, which has historically been tied to halving events. According to Grayscale, this model could be broken next year, opening the way to an unprecedented bullish movement. “Although prospects are uncertain, we believe the four-year cycle thesis will prove incorrect and the asset’s price could reach new heights next year,” the report states.

Technical Signals and Supporting Factors

This statement comes as Bitcoin dropped 32% from its previous highs, but some technical signals already reveal a reversal. Bitcoin options imbalance, exceeding 4, indicates that investors have already “extensively hedged their downside risk exposure.”

Several factual elements support the thesis of a cycle reversal:

• Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows in November, their second worst month historically. However, an inflection is emerging with four consecutive days of inflows.
• The probability of Federal Reserve monetary easing is estimated at 87% for a 25 basis point cut at the December meeting.
• The evolution of the US regulatory framework, with advances on structuring texts like the Digital Asset Market Structure Bill and the CLARITY Act, could encourage stronger institutional capital inflows as early as 2026.

For Grayscale, these elements converge toward an unprecedented scenario: Bitcoin freeing itself from its traditional cyclic rhythm, supported by changing macro and structural fundamentals.

The Fed’s Liquidity Injection Impact

Another key event that could significantly impact Bitcoin’s price is the injection of $13.5 billion in liquidity by the US Federal Reserve on December 1st—the second-largest operation since the COVID crisis. This decision marks the effective end of the Fed’s quantitative tightening program, potentially boosting risky assets including Bitcoin.

However, despite this monetary easing, Bitcoin has not yet capitalized on this favorable wind, unlike equity markets. The S&P 500 index continues its rise, supported by historically bullish seasonality in December, while BTC remains behind.

For some analysts, this divergence could signal a reversal in risky assets led by Bitcoin. However, others point to an excessive BTC valuation compared to gold, suggesting potential for correction given historically low implied volatility in equity markets.

Conclusion

Bitcoin replays patterns from the 2022 bear market, but the framework has changed. While the hypothesis of a peak in 2026 is gaining ground, nothing indicates that the old cycles still hold. The market is testing new benchmarks, and uncertainty remains the only constant.