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- Weak US PMI data and plans to raise interest rates in Japan put pressure on Bitcoin:
The US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on Monday, which is based on the activity of manufacturing companies, stood at 48.2 points in November, down from 48.7 points in October, surpassing expectations of 48.6 points. Data from the Purchasing Managers' Index below 50 points indicates contraction in the sector, which may suggest increasing pressures on companies following the rise in US tariffs.
On a more stringent note, the Bank of Japan is considering raising the interest rate on December 19, which will increase the cost of borrowing yen, negatively impacting yen-based interest trades - as we saw on Monday in the global financial market. If this leads to a sell-off in traditional financial markets, it could boost demand for gold, while the price of Bitcoin may be affected due to its increasing correlation with the US stock market.
In light of macroeconomic fluctuations, the derivatives market is experiencing a decline in investor confidence. Data from CoinGlass shows that the open interest (OI) for Bitcoin futures contracts has decreased by 2.17% in the past twenty-four hours to reach $56.48 billion, indicating that traders are reducing their risk-exposed capital as expectations for a market recovery fade.
Additionally, long liquidations worth $178.85 million surpassed short liquidations worth $54.33 million in the last 24 hours, indicating a larger clearing of positions associated with the rise.
Bitcoin derivative data. Source: CoinGlass
- Is it possible for the price of Bitcoin to rise?
Although the data from the US manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index released by the Institute for Supply Management for November, published on Monday, came in below expectations, the CME Group's FedWatch tool indicated an 87% chance that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75% at the meeting on December 9-10. Typically, a cut in interest rates allows investors to increase their risk tolerance with the lower cost of borrowing capital.
FedWatch Tool. Source: CME Group.
In such a case, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs ( may witness significant inflows, which could boost overall market sentiment. As of Monday, the total assets of U.S. Bitcoin ETFs ) reached $111.94 billion, after four consecutive days of inflows.
Data on Bitcoin exchange-traded funds.