Tonight is another sleepless night - the "judgment moment" for high-leverage players has arrived.

On December 3rd, three heavyweight economic data points are set to be released: from tonight until early tomorrow, the ADP employment report, import price index, and API crude oil inventory will take turns appearing. The current market leverage is frighteningly high, and each of these data points could become the last straw that breaks the camel's back.

Data hasn't been released yet, but the market has already started to "shake". Bitcoin is fluctuating around $86,000, with a 24-hour volatility exceeding 5%; institutional funds are also fleeing in advance, with a net outflow of $1.2 billion from ETFs in a single day; even more exaggerated is that the total open interest for futures across the network has surpassed $12 billion, marking the peak leverage rate of the last three months, which could trigger a chain liquidation at any moment.

Let's break down the "lethality" of these three pieces of data:

The ADP employment data at 21:15 (previously 42,000, expected 5,000) — this is the trigger point for sentiment. If the numbers are too strong, the market will feel that the Federal Reserve is in no hurry to cut interest rates, and the price of coins may directly break 80,000; however, if the data is weak, although the expectation for rate cuts will rise, in a high leverage environment, the rebound can easily be crushed back down by margin calls.

The import price index at 21:30 (previous value 0.30%, expected 0.10%) - this is more bizarre. If it rises, inflation pressure will suppress risk assets, but it may also attract a wave of bottom-fishing funds due to the "anti-inflation narrative"; if it falls, although the pressure for interest rate hikes is relieved, the hedging value of cryptocurrencies will also be questioned.

The API crude oil inventory at 05:30 tomorrow morning - this will indirectly affect mining costs and market sentiment. A significant increase in inventory means a decrease in oil prices, which is beneficial for miners as costs lower; a significant decrease in inventory will push oil prices higher, and rising costs may trigger selling pressure from miners, while also transmitting through economic expectations to overall risk appetite.

In short, the current cryptocurrency market is firmly tied to macro narratives, and high leverage has become the biggest time bomb. Don't think about betting on a certain data direction to gamble; wait for the emotions to stabilize before making a judgment—surviving in this volatility is much more important than making quick money.