Recently, my private messages have exploded, and everyone is asking the same question: Is it still a bull run or not?

First, let me show you a few numbers.

Bitcoin fell from 126,000 USD all the way down to 94,000, with a total liquidation of 19 billion USD across the network, resulting in almost zero annual growth. Altcoins? Even worse, a drop by half is considered mild, with some directly evaporating by 80 to 90 percent.

In this way of killing, do you think it's an adjustment or a shift to bear?

When I entered the market in 2017, I didn't believe at all in the so-called "four-year cycle" theory, thinking it was all just a trick made up by old players to fool people. But this time I was truly awakened - the transition between bull and bear markets is never just talk; it is achieved through real money.

Do you remember the beginning of the month? BTC was hovering around 110,000, and various altcoins were skyrocketing five to ten times a day, with wealth myths everywhere. I am very familiar with that scene; the last time I saw it was at the end of the 2021 bull run—after the madness comes a mess. At that time, I gave a few risk warnings, and as a result, I was mocked as a bear, saying that the bull run was still far away.

The market has provided an answer now.

The more critical factor is the timing: this year marks the 18th month after the halving. Looking back at historical data, each cycle tends to turn around at this point. Bitcoin can still be supported by institutional funds, but what about altcoins? Without buyers stepping in, they will drop harder than anyone else.

The technical outlook is also not optimistic. The 200-day moving average has been breached, and the 365-day moving average has also not held. Now everyone is focusing on the key support at 72,000. Additionally, with the Fed adopting a hawkish stance, the expectations for interest rate cuts have basically cooled off, and the government shutdown has led to tighter liquidity...

So don't expect any Christmas rally.

My judgment? In the short term, I see fluctuations in the range of 80,000 to 90,000. If it falls below 80,000, a cyclical bear market may really be coming.

But then again, I'm not that pessimistic.

ETF funds are still flowing in, with a net inflow of 253 million USD yesterday. What does this indicate? It's not that no one wants in; it's just that big capital is not in a hurry to buy the dip. This market has never been a straight line movement—bull runs do not rise forever, and bear markets do not fall endlessly.

Each cycle verifies the same law: what is prosperous must decline, and what is at its lowest must rebound.

We are now standing at the end, waiting for the next round to begin.

Instead of getting tangled up every day debating whether it's a bull or a bear market, it's better to focus on what needs to be done: keep some cash, see the direction clearly, and don’t get caught up in pointless activities. True opportunities never arise during the festivities; they quietly come when everyone is numb and desperate.

Patience is more important than ever.

All we can do now is wait.