This morning, Bitcoin suddenly plummeted below 83,000, and this time it's not just a technical pullback.

The market is now wildly betting on the Bank of Japan raising interest rates in December - the probability has soared to 80%, and is approaching 90% in January next year. What does this mean? The global ¥19 trillion scale yen carry trade may face an unprecedented crisis of disintegration.

In the past few decades, due to Japan maintaining near-zero interest rates, global funds have borrowed a large amount of low-interest yen to exchange for dollars to chase high-yield assets - US stocks, tech stocks, and of course, cryptocurrencies. Once Japan really tightens its monetary policy, this chain of funds will instantly reverse, and risk assets like Bitcoin will inevitably be the first to be sold off.

History is always surprisingly similar. Do you remember Christmas 2022? The Bank of Japan suddenly adjusted its yield curve control policy, and the global market was in turmoil that day. Now it's almost December 19th, the Christmas holiday, and market liquidity is already thin. If Japan throws another heavy punch at this time, the impact will only be magnified.

Looking at the current data shows how fragile the market is: Bitcoin has plummeted over 20% in a month, with a net outflow of $3.5 billion from ETFs and a single-day liquidation amount exceeding $400 million. Worse yet, Powell's speech at the Federal Reserve tonight was ambiguous, providing no substantial easing signals. This kind of silence is often more dangerous — with Japan tightening liquidity and the U.S. unwilling to provide relief, the crypto market is truly caught in a pincer.

Speaking of misery, the ecological coins of certain platforms are also in a mess. The newly appointed head of growth has been shouting slogans about revitalizing the public chain ecosystem, but the user retention rate has plummeted, and the prices of many project tokens have already fallen below the institutional purchase cost. However, it should be noted that the most anxious ones are not the retail investors, but the platforms themselves—rescue actions may already be in the works.

But if you think about it calmly, the liquidity shock brought by carry trades closing is just a short-term impact, not the end of the world. After Japan's last interest rate hike in 2024, Bitcoin reached a new all-time high within three months. The key now is to closely monitor two time windows: the Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting in December and the upcoming policy signals from the Federal Reserve.

Don't think about bottom fishing; controlling your position is more important than anything else. The market is never short of opportunities, but the prerequisite is that you must survive first to wait for the next rebound. Stay calm, see the direction clearly, and maintain your mindset - this is the right way to navigate through the fluctuations.