Can Bitcoin really have its rise and fall calculated using a calendar? It sounds mystical, but the historical data is right here.

Someone left a message at the end of 2023: "The peak will be seen on October 6, 2025." What happened? Bitcoin shot up to $126,000 that day and then turned back directly, with an error of less than 72 hours. What's even more outrageous is that looking back through several cycles, this kind of precision has always existed—1064 days of rise + 364 days of fall, as precise as a clock.

Why is this happening? Three reasons are hard to bear: the halving mechanism cuts off supply every four years; the greed and fear cycles of retail investors and institutions overlap significantly; and on top of that, the block time at the code level is inherently fixed. These factors combined lead to cyclical movements.

But this time it might be different. Traditional financial bigwigs have entered the arena, the ETF has passed, and real-world assets (RWA) are starting to get serious. Will the old rules still apply? It's hard to say.

What about now? The bear market has likely started. According to historical experience, the next bottom-buying window may be from the end of 2026 to the beginning of 2027, depending on the period 500 to 600 days after the halving.

Some projects are actually doing the opposite. For example, those focusing on RWA yields can stabilize through cash flow during a bear market. They don't speculate on concepts but make money through hard cash with on-chain fees and real asset dividends. Traditional funds can still squeeze in when seeking safe havens. This logic is looked down upon in a bull market but has a way out in a bear market.