S&P 500 just flipped a bearish signal after 198 days of smooth sailing. The index dropped below its 50-day moving average for the first time since late April — a technical shift that happens roughly once every 18 years.

Here's what happened: peaked at 6,890.89 on Oct 28, then retreated 5.1% in less than a month. Weak job growth, cooling consumer spending, and rising auto loan defaults are all feeding the pessimism.

But before you panic-sell: history says this isn't a crash warning. After the three previous long streaks above the 50-day MA ended, the S&P 500 averaged +8% gains over the next six months. The real worry? CAPE ratio is now at its second-highest level ever — only topped during the dot-com bubble. So yeah, volatility ahead is baked in, but the technical breakdown alone isn't a red alert.