# Revealing the 15-Year Stock Market Return Rate: The Truth Behind the 13.8% Annualized Return

The past 15 years (2009-2023) have been a golden period for U.S. stocks. After rebounding from the bottom of the financial crisis, the S&P 500 index achieved an annualized compound growth rate of 13.8%, with an inflation-adjusted rate of 11.2%.

**The data comparison is quite heartbreaking**:
- Starting from 2009 (including the 2023 bull market): annualized 13.8%
- Looking back a year (2008 bear market + 2023 returns offset): annualized only 8.7%

In other words, the timing of the selection directly affects the return by more than 20 percentage points.

**What do historical patterns say?** The S&P 500 has outperformed inflation by about 6.5% per year in the long term. However, this extraordinary performance over the past 15 years is not without precedent—investors after WWII and those who entered during the high interest rates of the 1980s also enjoyed similar dividends. A cautionary tale is the group of people who experienced the tech bubble at the end of the 1990s followed by the Great Recession.

**Outlook 2024+**: No one can accurately predict the next 15 years. However, historical data shows that holding stocks for the long term remains the most reliable way to combat inflation and accumulate wealth. The key is mindset—don’t let short-term fluctuations scare you away.