The Lithium Supply Game Just Got Real

While everyone’s focused on Bitcoin, lithium miners are quietly reshaping the global EV supply chain—and 2025 is about to get spicy.

The Numbers Tell a Story

Global lithium production hit 240,000 MT last year, up from 204,000 MT in 2023. That’s not a coincidence. Here’s who’s winning:

Australia dominates with 88,000 MT (down 4% YoY though—demand weakness is real), followed by Chile at 49,000 MT (up 127% since 2020) and China at 41,000 MT (15% growth). The plot twist? Zimbabwe rocketed from 6th to 4th place, jumping 47% YoY to 22,000 MT. This African nation went from 800 MT in 2022 to 22,000 MT in just two years. China’s already moving in through Sinomine and other majors—classic resource colonization 2.0.

Why This Matters

Here’s where it gets critical: 80% of global lithium goes to batteries, and demand is about to explode. Benchmark Mineral Intelligence forecasts 30%+ YoY demand growth from EVs and energy storage in 2025 alone. By 2030, we’ll need 150 new battery factories and $116B in investments just to avoid supply crashes.

But here’s the catch—2024 saw lithium prices crater 22% due to oversupply (84,000 MT surplus). Production cuts could narrow that to 33,000 MT, but geopolitical tensions and US tariffs on Chinese EVs are creating uncertainty. China’s record EV sales remain the wild card.

The Power Shifts

Argentina’s moment is now. Production more than doubled from 8,630 MT (2023) to 18,000 MT (2024), with potential to grow 10x by 2027. Rio Tinto’s $2.5B Rincón expansion (60,000 MT annual capacity by 2028 using direct lithium extraction tech) will be a game-changer.

Brazil’s flying under the radar. Output doubled to 10,000 MT in 2024, with the government backing a $2.1B expansion and Minas Gerais launching “Lithium Valley Brazil” to attract investment.

North America is catching up. Canada’s production jumped 32% to 4,300 MT, while the US has withheld data from just two operations (Nevada brine + Utah waste tailings). But watch the pipeline: Lithium Americas’ Thacker Pass, Piedmont Lithium’s hard-rock project, and Standard Lithium’s Arkansas Smackover are all ramping up.

Europe’s playing catch-up. Portugal’s Barroso project (Western Europe’s first major lithium mine) got pushed to 2027 due to environmental red tape and public backlash—classic EU regulatory friction.

The Real Story

This isn’t just about mining numbers. It’s a supply chain reshuffling—China’s securing African and South American assets while the West races to build domestic capacity. With lithium mining growing at 7.2% CAGR through 2035, the next decade will define who controls EV batteries and, by extension, green energy infrastructure.

The 2024 oversupply might have crushed prices, but tighter production discipline + exploding EV demand could flip the script fast. Mining stocks and battery material plays are positioning for round two.

The question: who wins the lithium geopolitics game in 2025?