S&P 500 Just Broke a 6-Month Streak—Here's What It Actually Means

The S&P 500 hit peak at 6,890.89 on Oct 28, then dropped 5.1% in weeks. More notably: the index dipped below its 50-day moving average for the first time since late April—ending a 198-day bull run.

Sound scary? Historically, it’s not. The last time this happened was back in 2007, and before that, the pattern showed markets averaged +8% gains in the following six months. So technically, history says “buy the dip.”

But here’s the catch: the Shiller P/E (CAPE) ratio is sitting at its second-highest level ever—only beaten by the dot-com bubble peak. Add in macro headwinds (weak job growth, sliding consumer spending, rising auto loan defaults), and you get the vibe that bull market fatigue is real.

The takeaway? The moving average crossover alone isn’t a red flag. But combined with stretched valuations and economic uncertainty, expect choppier waters ahead. It’s signal and noise—and smart money is probably watching both.