Is the U.S. economy really going to cool down?

Latest data shows that the probability of the U.S. entering a recession in 2025 is between 40% and 60%. Goldman Sachs raised the recession risk from 35% to 45%, while JPMorgan was more direct, stating a 60% probability of recession, mainly due to the tariff war.

So the question arises: which stocks can survive?

The answer is just two words - "Defense." History tells us that during tough economic times, these types of stocks can withstand the blows:

✓ Daily necessities (food and beverages, daily chemicals)
✓ Public utilities (water, electricity, gas)
✓ Healthcare Sector (Pharmaceuticals, Medical Devices)
✓ Discount Retail (Everyone is budget-conscious)

Interestingly, there are also "little luxury" items, which are those inexpensive comfort goods—milk tea, chocolate, video streaming. People may be hesitant to buy houses or cars, but they are unwilling to give up these small joys.

Looking back at history: During the 2008 recession, Netflix rose by 23.6% (it was just starting out at that time), Walmart rose by 7.3%, McDonald's rose by 4.7%, while the S&P 500 index fell by 35.6%. Utility stocks also held up—American Water (AWK) fell by 12.7%, but has increased by 953% since then.

Core suggestion: Now you can adjust your portfolio to make it more recession-resistant, but definitely do not liquidate your holdings. In the long run, time is the best friend; leaving the market too early carries greater risks.