The Stock Frenzy Behind Quantum Computing: The Overlooked Deadly Move

In the past year, the four pure quantum computing stocks IonQ, Rigetti, D-Wave, and Quantum Computing Inc. have risen by 90%, 1860%, 1530%, and 385% respectively—significantly outperforming the Nasdaq's 20% rise.

It seems that Quantum Computing is about to take off. But the question is: the real threat comes from those tech giants lying on mountains of gold and silver.

Why is this surge happening?

Two reasons:

First, the commercialization prospects are attractive. BCG estimates that Quantum Computing could contribute $450 billion to $850 billion to the global economy by 2040.

Second, endorsement from large companies. Amazon and Microsoft have integrated IonQ and Rigetti's quantum processors into their respective cloud platforms; JPMorgan Chase has explicitly stated it will invest in 27 subfields, including Quantum Computing.

This really makes people FOMO. The question arises.

Hidden Bomb

Quantum Computing is still in the very early stages, and the bubble risk is obvious. But the most deadly threat has been overlooked by investors:

Today's customers may become competitors tomorrow.

Look at what is happening now:

• Alphabet launched the Willow chip last December, which is 13,000 times faster than the fastest classical supercomputer.
• Microsoft has released Majorana 1, claiming it can scale up to 1 million quantum bits.

Google and Microsoft are both cash-rich tech empires that are investing heavily in the development of their own quantum processors. They are both customers of companies like IonQ and are also building their own moats.

The valuation of pure Quantum Computing companies has become alarmingly outrageous (the P/S ratio far exceeds the historical bubble warning line), and the financing pressure is immense (besides IonQ raising $2 billion, other companies are all burning cash). What can they use to compete with Big Tech, which has unlimited cash flow and the world's top engineers?

Finally

The first batch of pioneers may not necessarily live the longest. In the process of Quantum Computing becoming a reality, the risks faced by these four stocks have been severely underestimated.