**Stablecoin rise stagnates, should Ethereum investors be worried?**

Abnormal signals have appeared in on-chain cash flows. The total market capitalization of stablecoins has approached 300 billion USD, but it has actually declined by 1.5% in the last 30 days—this seems quite abrupt after two years of continuous rise.

What is the problem? Ethereum carries over half of the stablecoin assets (approximately $165 billion), and these stablecoins are the lifeblood of the DeFi ecosystem. They are used for lending, trading settlement, and asset exchange – without a continuous influx of new funds, Ethereum's TVL rise is bound to slow down.

**Bad news**: If the stablecoin market remains stagnant for 1-2 years, the activity of Ethereum's DeFi platforms will decline, gas fee revenue will decrease, and prices will face pressure.

**Good news**: The U.S. GENIUS Act has been passed, and the regulatory framework for stablecoins is gradually taking shape. At the same time, tokenized U.S. Treasury products are gaining momentum—this is also on-chain cash. If the stablecoin rise restarts + the tokenization of U.S. Treasuries accelerates, Ethereum's "cash pool" will continue to expand, and the price may not need to drop significantly.

**Bottom line**: Currently a yellow card, not a red card. The key in the next 2-6 months is whether the stablecoin rebounds and whether Ethereum can maintain its dominance. Keep a close eye on this indicator - it determines the potential ceiling for on-chain activity.