CRWD stock price outlook analysis: institutional divergence, bullish expectations moderate

Oppenheimer maintains its “Outperform” rating on CrowdStrike (CRWD), but the pump potential is limited.

Price Targets vs Reality

The analysts' average target price is $512.28, which is only a pump of 2.19% compared to the latest closing price of $501.31—this rise is honestly not very attractive. The target price range is quite wide ($186.85-$741.30), indicating a significant disparity in market views on this stock.

There are some issues with the financial report expectations.

Good news: Expected annual revenue of $47.4 billion, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 9.17%.

Bad news: The expected non-GAAP EPS is 3.94, which is a 17.77% decrease compared to the last forecast - this negative revision is worth noting.

Institutional Attitudes Begin to Loosen

2,994 funds/institutions hold positions, a decrease of 19 in the last quarter. Although the average portfolio share increased from 0.42% to 0.43%, the total number of shares held by institutions actually dropped by 5.30% to 198 million shares—this is a contradictory signal.

The bearish/bullish ratio is 1.07, slightly pessimistic.

What Are Big Players Doing

Increased: Vanguard's Total Stock Market Fund and S&P 500 Fund both increased their holdings in CRWD, with an increase of over 32%.

Reducing positions: JPMorgan, Geode Capital, and Jennison are all reducing their investment in CRWD (by 50%-90%), with Jennison directly cutting 7.15% of its shares.

Bottom line: Although there are endorsements from influential institutions, the reduction of holdings by leading funds is more concerning. This stock may no longer be the darling of institutions.