The real situation of XRP after the Rebound: where will it fall to in 5 years?

What happened recently

XRP soared to a historical high of $3.65 after the SEC dropped its lawsuit, but it has now fallen back by 39%. It doesn't look so great now.

Why does it rise quickly and fall quickly?

Let's talk about the good news first: Ripple's cross-border payment network is indeed useful, with transaction costs as low as 0.00001 tokens. The SEC settlement has also given institutional investors hope, and the approval of spot ETFs can attract new funds.

Let's talk about bad things:

• Banks can transfer fiat currency directly on the Ripple network without having to use XRP at all.
• The stablecoin RLUSD launched by Ripple last year has fluctuations close to zero, making it more suitable for payment scenarios.
• XRP is highly volatile, and banks face significant risk of losses when using it for payments.

Why the XRP ETF Won't Be the Next Bitcoin

BTC relies on scarcity (a limit of 21 million coins) + decentralization to support its value, while XRP lacks these. ETFs have saved BTC before, but cannot save XRP—because institutions do not consider it a long-term store of value.

Pessimistic Forecast for the Next 5 Years

In 2018, XRP also reached an all-time high, but the following year it plummeted by 95%. If history repeats itself, the current 39% decline may just be the beginning. Analysts believe that in 5 years, XRP is likely to fall below $1.

Key Issue: Lack of sustained institutional demand + not a store of value = either find new use cases or continue to decline.