Why Buffett's Quietest Mega-Position Might Be His Smartest Move

While everyone’s watching Berkshire load up on Apple and Alphabet, Buffett’s been sitting tight on a $50B American Express stake since forever — and that’s the real signal.

The Numbers Tell the Story

AmEx isn’t flashy, but it’s printing money:

• 2024 revenue up 9% YoY to $65.9B
• Earnings per share jumped 25% to $14.01
• Q3 alone? 11% revenue growth + 19% EPS growth
• Returned $7.9B to shareholders (buybacks + dividends)

That’s double-digit growth the market’s sleeping on.

Why Buffett Won’t Let Go

Unlike Apple (which Berkshire keeps trimming), the AmEx position has been untouched for decades. That’s not accident — it’s conviction.

AmEx sits on both sides of every transaction:

• Issues cards + runs the network
• Captures rich data on high-spenders
• Charges $895/year for Platinum (and people pay)
• Better rewards targeting than rivals

That’s a moat. That’s recurring revenue.

The Valuation Play

Here’s where it gets interesting: AmEx trades at 24x P/E while Apple sits at 36x and Alphabet at 30x. For a payments company growing revenue double-digits with fortress credit quality? That’s a gap.

The Risk

Recession could crater card spending. Competition’s brutal. Nothing’s risk-free.

But Buffett’s 30+ year hold isn’t about next quarter — it’s about what AmEx looks like in 2035. If you can stomach volatility, the math checks out.