TSX Hits Record High as Fed Rate Cut Bets Heat Up

Canadian equities are on fire today—the S&P/TSX Composite just punched through to an all-time high, riding a wave of three tailwinds: expectations for a September Fed rate cut, sticky oil prices, and some genuinely impressive earnings prints.

The Numbers

The benchmark climbed to 27,955.55 intraday before settling around 27,903.85, up 333.77 points or 1.21%. Tech is leading the charge—the Information Technology Capped Index jumped nearly 5%.

Stars of the day:

• Shopify absolutely ripped, surging ~20% after reporting Q2 net income of $906M (vs. $171M YoY). The kicker? Management guided for mid-to-high 20s revenue growth in Q3.
• SSR Mining rocketed 17% on Q2 net income of $80.4M, a massive 32x jump from $2.46M last year.
• Great West Lifeco gained 2.5%, posting Q2 EPS of $1.24 (up from $1.11 YoY).
• Open Text, Bitfarms, and Sangoma each added 1.2-1.5%.

The energy play of note: Suncor Energy ticked up 0.7% despite a softer earnings quarter ($1,134M vs. $1,568M YoY)—investors seem focused on the forward story rather than backward looks.

The Reality Check

Not all is rosy. Canada’s private sector activity contracted for the eighth straight month. The Composite PMI edged up to 48.7 in July (from 44.0 in June), but that’s still in contraction territory. Manufacturing PMI at 46.1 and Services PMI at 49.3 show the economy is treading water, not sprinting.

The Takeaway

Today’s rally is classic risk-on sentiment: falling rate expectations + selective earnings strength = hedge funds pile in. But the PMI data whispers a warning—Canadian economic momentum is anemic. The real test will be whether this market holds if the Fed actually disappoints on rate cuts.