The two hurdles and a $100 billion bet for TSL in 2026

Why it's particularly crucial to talk about TSL now

The market value of TSL is 1.2 trillion dollars, with a stock price valuation as high as 15 times its sales (competitor Rivian is only 3 times). Where does this premium come from? Musk's recent prophecy provides the answer.

Level 1: The EV price war is about to escalate.

Current Situation: TSL derives 80% of its revenue from electric vehicle sales, with 90% coming from the Model Y and Model 3. These two models are both entry-level (priced < $50,000) and are the secret to TSL's dominance in the affordable EV market for many years.

The threat is here: Over 12 new EV models will be launched in 2026, with several priced above the $50,000 mark. Rivian plans to introduce three new vehicles all within this price range, breaking Tesla's long-standing monopoly advantage. Even more concerning is that Tesla's sales growth has stagnated in 2025.

Level 2: Betting on Autonomous Driving Taxis

Market Size: Analysts estimate that the Robotaxi market could ultimately reach $5 trillion to $10 trillion.

TSL's Advantages:

• Vertical Integration: Waymo (Google) and Uber do not manufacture cars, only TSL produces them.
• Supply Chain Control: Faster scaling speed, lower costs
• Technology Iteration: Can adapt and optimize autonomous driving algorithms more quickly

Musk's Crazy Goal: To produce 2-3 million Cybercabs by 2026. If realized, TSL will secure a leading position in this multi-year opportunity.

Investors need to understand that

TSL's current valuation is entirely based on the assumption of a Robotaxi explosion. If EV competition squeezes profits in 2026 and Robotaxi fails to deliver on time, the stock price may face a revaluation. Conversely, if autonomous taxi services really take off, that would be the next trillion-dollar growth engine.

Core Logic: Investing in TSL is betting on whether Elon can deliver on his promise regarding Robotaxi.