Hong Kong Stocks Eye 26K Resistance as Fed Rate-Cut Bets Surge

The Hang Seng Index is heating up—up 710+ points over three sessions and now sitting just above 25,980. Traders are sniffing a potential break through 26,000 resistance on the back of Wall Street’s solid finish.

Here’s what’s driving it:

The real catalyst? Fed expectations have flipped dramatically. According to CME FedWatch, the odds of a quarter-point rate cut next month jumped from 30% to 83% in just one week. That’s the kind of 180 that gets money moving.

Wall Street showed up Wednesday—Dow +0.67%, S&P 500 +0.69%, NASDAQ +0.82%. Valuations that were spooking traders last month suddenly feel less scary when rate cuts are on the menu.

Data backing the move:

U.S. durable goods orders beat expectations in September, and unemployment claims dipped unexpectedly. Oil climbed too (WTI +1.05% to $58.56) as doubts grew about the new U.S. proposal to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

The setup for Thursday: Asian markets are positioning for a positive open. If Hang Seng can clear 26K, the next leg up looks plausible. The rate-cut narrative is still the main tape running.