The US dollar index rose 0.65% on Wednesday, reaching a two-week high, and a key turning point has arrived. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics canceled the release of October employment data, directly cutting the probability of a Fed rate cut in December from 70% to 28%—the market has already priced in a hawkish stance.

What’s even more heartbreaking is that the latest FOMC meeting minutes revealed that "most" officials tend to keep interest rates unchanged before the end of the year. This means that the Fed may really pause its rate cuts. Coupled with a trade deficit that was better than expected (falling to -59.6 billion in August), this wave of dollar rise has fundamental support.

Contagion effect: The euro fell 0.46% against the dollar, hitting a 1.5-week low; the yen fared worse, as BOJ officials made dovish comments and Japan is set to inject 20 trillion yen in stimulus, resulting in a 0.95% rise in USD/JPY.

Precious metals are being double-hit—strong dollar + cooling interest rate cut expectations, putting pressure on both gold and silver. Although central banks have increased their gold holdings for 12 consecutive months and global purchases in Q3 have surged by 28%, the pressure to close long positions is greater, resulting in a loss after reaching a three-year high.