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Why Tesla Might Not Be Your Best Bet Right Now
Applying Warren Buffett’s investment principles to Tesla in 2025 reveals some uncomfortable truths:
The CEO Problem Buffett said it takes 20 years to build trust but 5 minutes to lose it. Tesla’s brand is now inseparable from Elon Musk’s polarizing politics—and the numbers prove it hurts. A 2025 NBER study suggests Tesla would’ve sold 1-1.26 million more vehicles if Musk had stayed out of the political spotlight. Meanwhile, Musk is stretched thin across 6+ companies while spending months in DC running DOGE. Even a trillion-dollar pay package can’t guarantee his focus stays on Tesla.
The Competition Problem Tesla’s moat is crumbling. While global EV sales grew from 13M to 17M vehicles (2023-2024), Tesla’s deliveries actually declined. Worse: Tesla’s U.S. market share collapsed from 80% to 38% by August 2025—an 8-year low. BYD and other Chinese competitors are eating lunch in every major market. Tesla now has the only negative growth rate (-11%) among top-tier EV companies.
The Bottom Line Tesla makes great cars, but Buffett would worry about two things: a distracted CEO damaging the brand, and zero durable competitive advantage against increasingly fierce competitors. Price cuts aren’t cutting it anymore.
Until Tesla’s leadership prioritizes the company over politics, there are probably safer bets out there.