Tesla Q3 Earnings: Record Revenue Can't Hide the FSD Reality Check

Tesla just dropped a mixed earnings report that’s got Wall Street scratching their heads. Here’s the deal:

The Good News:

• Q3 revenue hit $28.1B, crushing estimates of $26.37B
• Stock has rebounded ~60% over 6 months, market cap now at $1.5T
• Robotaxi launch captured headlines and investor imagination

The Red Flags:

• EPS came in at $0.50 vs. expected $0.55 (missed)
• Gross margin excluding regulatory credits: 15.4% vs. 15.6% expected (missed)
• Tesla’s entire $1.5T valuation is riding on AI/robotaxi/robotics upside, not cars

Here’s Where It Gets Spicy:

Andrej Karpathy—Tesla’s former AI chief who literally built Autopilot—just told a podcast that everyone needs to pump the brakes on autonomous driving hype. His take? Tesla and Waymo have made progress, but we’re still years away from truly “solved” autonomous tech.

Karpathy’s not alone. Tesla faces mounting lawsuits over Full Self-Driving (FSD) claims, and even their recent Austin robotaxi launch still requires a human supervisor inside the vehicle. Waymo ditched that requirement back in 2020. Elon has been promising “full autonomy is coming soon” for years. It hasn’t.

What This Actually Means:

Tesla’s $1.5T valuation is built on “what if” scenarios: 1M robotaxis operational, 1M Optimus robots, 20M FSD subscriptions, $400B core profit. These are Musk’s compensation milestone targets, not guaranteed outcomes.

The company isn’t just a carmaker anymore—it’s a high-risk tech bet wrapped in automotive clothing. If autonomous driving and robotics pan out, Tesla could be worth way more. If not? The market cap looks increasingly disconnected from reality.

Bottom Line: Tesla is polarizing for a reason. It’s made early investors wealthy, but at current valuations, you’re paying premium prices for technology that’s still unproven and further from commercialization than the hype suggests.