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Trump's tariff U-turn just crushed coffee prices. Arabica dropped 7-week low (-1.91%), robusta -2.70% on Friday after he exempted Brazilian food from tariffs Thursday.
Here's the domino effect:
🔹 Brazilian real weakened 5-week low → producers panic-selling
🔹 US buyers dumped Brazilian coffee contracts (Aug-Oct purchases down 52% YoY)
🔹 ICE arabica inventory hit 1.75-year low (398,645 bags)
But not all bearish. Vietnam's robusta got support from harvest delays in Dak Lak province. Plus global supplies tightened—ICO reported coffee exports down 0.3% YoY.
The wild part: Brazil's forecast to produce 70.7M bags in 2026/27 (+29% YoY), while Vietnam's robusta output climbing to 4-year high of 31M bags. So this dip might be temporary before supply crushes prices again.
Rain forecasts in Brazil's Minas Gerais also bullish for crop—only 42% of historical average so far.