Natural gas futures rose 1.72% yesterday, and the reasons behind it are quite interesting.

The weekly inventory data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration ( EIA ) has been released: natural gas inventory decreased by 11 bcf, exceeding the market expectation of 9 bcf. This "unexpected decline" directly boosted gas prices. At the same time, cold air is coming—temperatures in the East and South dropped at the beginning of December, and continued to be cold in the East and North in mid-December, which fueled heating demand.

But this wave of pump also faces pressure:
- The dry gas production in the lower 48 states of the United States reached a record high of 113.1 bcf/day (year-on-year +8.3%)
- EIA raises the 2025 production forecast to 107.67 bcf/day, which is 1% higher than before.
- The number of drilling rigs hits a 2-year high, with production capacity continuing to be released.

Although inventory has decreased, it is still abundant—current inventory is 0.8% lower than the same period last year, but higher than the 5-year seasonal average of 4.2%. The situation in Europe is the opposite, with inventory only at 78% capacity, far below the 5-year average of 88%.

Overall, cold weather + inventory decline push up gas prices, but ample capacity and the situation of global supply differentiation are still in play.