# Nickel's Q3 Puzzle: Stuck in Limbo While Indonesia Floods the Market

Nickel in Q3 2025 was basically treading water—prices bounced between $15,000 and $15,500, hitting a quarterly high of $15,575 (July 23) and low of $14,950 (July 31). Sounds stable? Here's the catch: LME nickel stockpiles exploded to 231,504 MT by end of September, up from 164,028 MT at year-start. That's 70% more metal sitting in warehouses waiting for a buyer.

The real culprit? Indonesia's nickel flooded the market faster than demand could absorb it. Despite cutting output quotas by 35%, the country still dominates global supply. Meanwhile, demand took body blows: US EV tax credit ended September 30 (killed demand), and Chinese battery makers are ditching nickel-based batteries for cheaper lithium-iron phosphate ones (lost 2 percentage points of market share year-on-year).

Indonesia's government is throwing everything at supply control—annual mine quotas, jacked-up royalties (nickel ore jumped from 10% to 14-19%), stricter environmental rules. But miners are screaming: higher costs + low cashflow = unsustainable.

Fastmarkets analyst Olivier Masson's take? Price stays stuck around $15K unless Indonesia actually restrains supply growth. Temporary relief might come from Philippines' rainy season (Q4 2025-Q1 2026) reducing ore shipments, but it won't fix the structural oversupply.

Bottom line: Nickel's problem isn't dying demand—it's drowning in supply. Until Indonesia tightens the tap, don't expect a breakout.