Canadian Mining Stocks Rally 10%+ This Week—Here's What Triggered the Surge

Canadian mining stocks had a stellar week. The TSX Venture Composite Index soared 10.57%, with the main TSX Composite gaining 4.84%. But what’s really turning heads are the individual plays—and the macro backdrop driving them.

The Big Picture: GDP Recovery + Commodity Tailwinds

Statistics Canada dropped Q3 GDP numbers on Friday, showing 0.6% growth for the quarter. Not earth-shattering, but here’s the kicker: exports of crude oil and bitumen jumped 6.7%, while imports of precious metals and industrial machinery fell. Government spending on weapons systems also surged 82%.

Meanwhile, commodities are catching fire. Silver hit a record high of US$56.37 (+11.39% for the week), gold climbed 3.5% to US$4,218.77, and copper jumped 3.74% to US$5.27/lb. When precious metals move like this, small-cap mining explorers tend to follow.

One catch: the mining and quarrying subsector contracted 2.2% in September, with potash mining down 4.9%. That didn’t stop this week’s performers though.

The Top 5 Movers

1. Mountain Province Diamonds (TSX:MPVD) — +114%

• Market cap: C$19.11M | Share price: C$0.075
• The standout. This 49% owner of the Gahcho Kué diamond mine in the NWT sold 409,081 carats in Q3 for C$29.2M (C$71/carat avg). Grades are expected to improve in Q4 as production shifts to higher-grade zones. Plus, they just extended their working capital facility to March 2026, unlocking more funding flexibility.

2. SPC Nickel (TSXV:SPC) — +100%

• Market cap: C$23.92M | Share price: C$0.07
• Doubling on fresh assay results from its Muskox project in Nunavut. The company hit high-grade copper-nickel-PGM mineralization: 39 out of 77 grab samples returned >2% Ni+Cu grades, with 19 hitting >5%. This is early-stage exploration but the numbers are getting people’s attention.

3. AJN Resources (CSE:AJN) — +80.95%

• Market cap: C$12M | Share price: C$0.19
• Working on the Otoke gold project in Ethiopia and lithium plays in DRC/Nevada. Just closed a C$3M private placement to fund due diligence. Mapping identified multiple mineralized zones, and they’re prepping to drill 1,500 meters by May 2025.

4. Bear Creek Mining (TSXV:BCM) — +65.38%

• Market cap: C$93.5M | Share price: C$0.43
• Operating the Mercedes gold-silver mine in Mexico. Q3 production: 6,219 oz gold + 18,866 oz silver. The stock jumped on the back of precious metals rally this week—when silver and gold spike, producers tend to re-rate higher.

5. Karnalyte Resources (TSX:KRN) — +65.38%

• Market cap: C$93.5M | Share price: C$0.43
• Updated feasibility study for its Wynyard potash project just dropped Wednesday. Numbers look solid: C$2.04B after-tax NPV, 12.5% IRR, 8.8-year payback, 70-year mine life. India’s GFSC locked in an offtake deal for 350,000 tonnes/year Phase 1.

The Takeaway

This week’s rally is a combo play: commodity strength (especially precious metals), positive macro signals (crude exports up, government capex rising), and fresh catalysts from individual companies (resource updates, financing closes, feasibility studies). Small-cap explorers are where the volatility lives—114% moves on a single week aren’t uncommon when you’re talking C$19M market caps.

But watch the headwinds: mining-quarrying contracted in September, and BC’s government + First Nations are blocking Alberta’s pipeline MoU. Regulatory risk is real in this space.