WTI crude oil rose slightly by 0.14% today, while gasoline increased by 0.61%. The weaker dollar and the failed peace talks between Russia and Ukraine pushed oil prices higher, but the EIA inventory data doused the optimism—crude oil inventories increased by 2.77 million barrels (expected decrease of 2.36 million barrels), gasoline inventories rose by 2.5 million barrels, and distillate stocks increased by 1.1 million barrels.

Supply side continues to be under pressure: Russia's exports fell to 1.7 million barrels per day in November (the lowest in 3 years), and the bombing of Russian refineries by Ukraine has weakened Russia's refining capacity by 20%. New sanctions from the US and Europe are also tightening the noose around Russia. However, this does not stop the supply surplus in the global oil market - the International Energy Agency predicts a record surplus of 4 million barrels per day in the global oil market by 2026.

OPEC+ has suspended production cuts, and US crude oil production remains high at 13.8 million barrels per day. Tanker oil and gas inventories have reached a new high in 2.25 years. It seems that geopolitical support cannot offset the bearish signals from the fundamentals.