The Lesson Amazon Taught Me (And Why I'm Loading Up on This Healthcare Stock)

Remember when I sold Amazon during the Fire Phone disaster in 2014? Peak move. Stock tripled afterward—I was right about the product being trash, dead wrong about the company.

The real lesson: Don’t bet against founder-led companies just because one idea bombs. Bezos kept swinging—AWS, Prime, Whole Foods acquisitions. One bad product ≠ bad company.

Fast forward to 2023. I picked up TransMedics (TMDX) early in the year, watched it run. Then they bought an aviation company. My gut reaction? “Margins are getting crushed.” The market agreed—stock got cut in half.

But I didn’t sell. Learned my lesson.

Two years later:

• Stock up 3x from the 2023 lows
• Transplant revenue +32% last quarter
• Logistics revenue +35%
• Net margin hitting 17%
• Their aviation unit now handles 78% of transplants in their program

Turns out that “bad” acquisition turned into a nationwide logistical network that actually improved outcomes while freeing up cash.

They’re targeting 10,000 transplants in a few years (currently way below that). Kidney donations + international expansion = markets potentially multiples larger than what they’re doing now.

Will their next-gen systems work? Will the kidney/intl push pay off? No idea. But I’m giving this founder-led team the same rope I should’ve given Bezos back in 2014.

Keep holding. Keep adding. Sometimes the best investment lesson costs you money—then teaches you how to actually make it back.