Oil prices just hit a 5-week low today as peace talks between Russia and Ukraine heat up. WTI crude dropped 2.33% while RBOB gasoline fell 1.99%—the market's betting that a ceasefire could unlock Russian energy exports and flood global supplies.

But here's the catch: US economic data came in weak. Retail sales only +0.2% (expected +0.4%), and consumer confidence tanked to a 7-month low of 88.7. That's crushing demand expectations.

The real wild card? Russia's refining capacity is getting wrecked. Ukraine's drone strikes knocked out 13-20% of Russia's refineries, cutting exports to just 1.7M bpd—a 3-year low. Meanwhile, OPEC's swimming in oversupply now (500K bpd surplus in Q3, flipped from -400K deficit forecast). The IEA's already warning about a record 4.0M bpd glut coming in 2026.

Bottom line: Peace hopes + weak demand + supply glut = downward pressure on crude. Oil's fighting geopolitical risks, but the macro picture is looking bearish.