Bitcoin's institutional momentum just hit a speed bump. After dominating most of 2025, spot ETF inflows have tanked—late October saw $2.1B in outflows between Oct 27-Nov 7, with daily ETF buys dropping below the ~450 BTC daily mining supply on several occasions.

Here's the tension: miners pump out 450 BTC/day since April's halving. For most of this year, institutions were absorbing way more, creating supply squeeze = price fuel. Now? The biggest marginal buyer just ghosted.

The yellow flag: if this ETF weakness persists into 2026, expect choppier price action rather than clean uptrend. But here's the flip side—long-term HODLers are still accumulating (10+ year old coins growing 450 BTC/day), and ETF flows historically swing fast (early October hit $6B weekly inflow before the cooldown).

Bottom line: Near-term looks messy if institutions stay cold. Long-term thesis? Still solid—capped supply + shrinking float + growing institutional familiarity haven't changed. The dip might be boring, not broken.