Can XRP rise to $6? Analysts have differing opinions, but the recognition of ETFs is increasing.

Optimistic PI vs Pragmatic PI

UBS analyst Geoffrey Kendrick recently made a bold prediction: XRP could reach $12.50 by 2028, which corresponds to an annualized increase of 73%. But is this number outrageous?

In comparison, Morningstar expects the entire cryptocurrency market to grow by 10% annually. This analyst is more conservative - predicting that XRP can outperform the market, reaching around $6 by 2030 (an annualized 20%), which has a 150% upside relative to the current price of $2.40.

Two “catalysts”: one reliable, one uncertain

Reliable: SEC's XRP spot ETF

• Originally scheduled for approval in October, now delayed due to government shutdown, expected to be implemented in November-December.
• Reference: Bitcoin spot ETF raised $4B in its first month, leading to a subsequent 127% increase.
• Some institutional asset management sources say that the XRP ETF could reach $5B in its first month (which may be an overestimate)
• Core Logic: Once the $130 trillion institutional funds enter the market, retail investors will follow suit and profit.

The issue is: Ripple CEO Garlinghouse claims that XRP can capture 14% of SWIFT's payment volume, with $20T transacted annually over the next 5 years.

• Question 1: XRP trading volume continues to decline in 2025, interest is waning.
• Question 2: Using volatile coins as bridge currencies carries risks. Although Ripple has added the stablecoin RLUSD, Circle's USDC has already gained an advantage.
• Question 3: Will companies really use XRP on a large scale? No idea.

Risk Warning

XRP has fallen over 20% five times in the past three years, and it's still 30% away from its historical high. If you can't handle this kind of volatility, don't touch it.

Bottom line: ETF recognition is a real catalyst, but Ripple's payment ambitions are still just talk.