The US stock market saw a small rebound today. The S&P 500 rose by 0.29%, the Nasdaq 100 rose by 0.21%, and the futures had even stronger gains (ES futures +0.32%).

The main reason is that New York Fed President Williams took a hawkish stance, stating that the probability of a rate cut at the December FOMC meeting soared from 35% on Thursday to 68%. As soon as this news broke, bears quickly fled, and bonds also rallied, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield dropping to a 3-week low of 4.034%.

But it became a bit awkward when Boston Fed President Collins said it was more appropriate to stay put for now, causing bonds to fall back. The market is still digesting this move.

The other side is not very optimistic: Bitcoin has fallen another 3%, reaching a new low in 7.5 months, with an overall drop of 35% this week, and the sentiment in the crypto market is weak. Tech stocks and chip stocks are also sluggish, with NVIDIA, AMD, Oracle and others all weakening (Oracle leading the decline by over 3%), mainly due to concerns about whether AI investments can be realized.

The good news is that although the earnings season is coming to an end, 82% of S&P 500 companies exceeded expectations, with Q3 profits rising 14.6% year-on-year, far exceeding the expected 7.2%—this is the strongest quarter since 2021.

Overseas is not doing well: Europe’s manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell to 49.7 (in contraction territory), and UK retail sales posted the largest decline in 5 months. The 10-year German bond yield in Europe dropped to 2.693%, while the UK gilt yield fell to 4.547%.