Coffee prices are rallying today—arabica up 0.57% and robusta surging 2.37% to a 2-week high. Here's the breakdown:

**Vietnam Weather Shock**: Heavy flooding in Dak Lak province (Vietnam's biggest coffee hub) is delaying harvests. Since Vietnam produces 30% of the world's robusta supply, this matters.

**US Tariff Squeeze**: Trump's 40% tariff on Brazilian coffee is causing a supply crunch stateside. US imports of Brazilian coffee dropped 52% in Aug-Oct vs last year. Result? ICE arabica inventories hit a 1.75-year low (396,513 bags), robusta at 4-month lows.

**Supply Tightness**: Global coffee exports fell 0.3% YoY despite Vietnam ramping up exports (+13.4% to 1.31M tonnes). USDA projects world production rising only 2.5% in 2025/26 to a record 178.68M bags—not enough to ease the shortage.

**The Wildcard**: Brazil's crop forecasts are mixed. Conab cut 2025 arabica estimates, but StoneX projects 2026/27 output jumping 29% YoY. Weather in Minas Gerais (Brazil's heartland) remains the key watch.

Bottom line: Tariffs + flooding + tight inventories = sustained upside for coffee prices.