Bitcoin broke through 86000 today, at first I thought it was just another routine whipsaw operation.

Until I saw a number: 76%.

Spent several hours following this lead, and the conclusion is spine-chilling — it could be the prologue to a $14 trillion series of explosions.

**76% probability: Will the Bank of Japan take action in December?**

The hot topic in the圈内 these days is that the Bank of Japan may announce an interest rate hike on December 18-19. This is not without reason. Traders are voting with real money, giving a 76% probability of a rate hike in December, and it even soared to 90% for January.

The recent remarks by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda are thought-provoking: "We will weigh the timing and impact of interest rate hikes based on economic data, inflation trends, and market conditions."

Translation: An interest rate hike of 80% is coming, everyone should take care of themselves.

The yield on Japan's two-year government bonds has reached its highest level since the 2008 financial crisis. The market has long provided the answer.

Why must it be added? Inflation has exceeded the target line of 2% for several consecutive months, rising wages have brought about a new round of price pressure, and the continued depreciation of the yen has kept import costs high. This time Japan really can't hold on.

**$14 trillion "time bomb": carry trade**

Many people may not understand why, when Japan raises interest rates, the global market has to shake a bit too?

The core mechanism is just two words: interest arbitrage.

In the past few decades, Japan has maintained an ultra-low interest rate policy close to zero, currently at only 0.5%. Therefore, global capital has invented a perfect operation:

Borrow Japanese yen at a very low cost → exchange it for US dollars or euros → invest in high-yield assets like US stocks and cryptocurrencies.

How big is the scale of this gameplay? 14 trillion dollars.