US Labor Market Cracks Spark Dollar Selloff

The greenback is losing ground today as fresh cracks appear in America's job market. ADP data showing employers cutting 2,500 jobs weekly just triggered a 50% probability the Fed will slash rates by 25bp next month. DXY down -0.13%.

Here's the tug-of-war:
- Weakness pushing dollar lower (rate cuts loom)
- Housing data unexpectedly strong (7-month high NAHB index)
- Stock selloff creating dollar liquidity demand

EUR/USD climbing +0.09% as ECB appears done cutting while Fed likely cuts multiple times through 2026. Meanwhile USD/JPY fell -0.10% after yen caught a bid from falling Treasury yields and a 3% Nikkei crash.

Gold and silver took a hit (-0.41% and -0.95%) on fading rate-cut expectations, but central bank buying remains a floor—China's PBOC hit 74.09M oz reserves for the 12th straight month. Global central banks scooped up 220 MT in Q3, up 28% quarter-over-quarter.

The real tension: hawkish Fed talk earlier crushed rate-cut odds to 48%, but today's ADP shocker bounced it back up. Market pricing in just 28% chance of BOJ hike on December 19.