Gold Miners Hit a Speed Bump in Q3—But There's a Plot Twist

Barrick Mining just dropped their Q3 numbers, and yeah, they’re not pretty on the surface. Gold output tanked 12% year-over-year to 829k ounces, following a brutal 16% dip in Q2. The culprit? Loulo-Gounkoto mine got shut down, which also sent unit costs climbing. Sales volumes got hit too—down 13% YoY.

Here’s the thing though: Barrick’s betting it all on Q4. The company expects their fourth quarter to be the strongest of the year, but there’s a catch. They’re offloading Hemlo and Tongon mines in Q4, so those divestitures will actually reduce full-year production numbers. For 2025, they’re guiding for 3.15-3.5M ounces (ex-Loulo-Gounkoto), tracking toward the lower end—down from 3.91M in 2024.

How do the peers look?

• Newmont (NEM): Production down 15% YoY to 1.42M oz in Q3, but they’re sticking with their 5.9M oz 2025 target. Solid conviction.
• Agnico Eagle (AEM): Actually up YoY to 867k oz, maintaining their 3.3-3.5M oz range. This one’s holding the line better.

The Stock Story

B stock is crushing it—up 132% YTD vs. the mining-gold industry’s 124% rally. But valuations tell a different story: trading at 11.46x forward earnings, a 11% discount to the sector average of 12.9x. That’s either a buy signal or a warning sign, depending on how you read the tea leaves.

Earnings consensus expects 77% growth in 2025 and 46% in 2026, so the market’s priced in a recovery story. Stock currently sits at Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).