Coffee Rally: Vietnam Floods & US Tariff Chaos

Coffee futures spiked today—arabica +0.57%, robusta +2.37% to 2-week highs. Here's what's moving prices:

**Supply Tightening**: ICE arabica inventories hit 1.75-year lows (396,513 bags), robusta at 4-month lows (5,640 lots). American importers are dumping Brazilian coffee orders due to Trump's 40% tariff—US purchases from Brazil plunged 52% YoY through October.

**Vietnam Weather Shock**: Heavy rains delayed harvests in Dak Lak province (Vietnam's biggest coffee zone). The irony? Vietnam's 2025/26 production still projected +6% YoY to 1.76 MMT—a 4-year high. So supply keeps growing even as logistics stumble.

**Brazil Wild Card**: Minas Gerais (largest arabica region) got only 42% of historical rainfall—crop stress. But StoneX forecasts Brazil's 2026/27 output will surge +29% YoY to 70.7M bags, easing long-term concerns.

**Bottom Line**: Dollar weakness + tariff chaos + inventory squeeze = short-term bullish. But massive production increases in Brazil & Vietnam next year could reverse the rally. Watch ICE robusta—it's the play if Vietnam rains persist.