# What BTC's Historical Trends Tell You on the Eve of Halving

The Bitcoin halving is coming on April 20th, but this time it may not replicate past increases.

**Performance after previous halvings**:
- 300 days after the May 2020 Halving, an increase of 492% (from $8,601 to $50,941)
- 300 days after the July 2016 Halving, it increased by 136% (from $658 to $1,551)
- 300 days after the November 2012 Halving, an increase of 987% (from $12 to $135)

Sounds tempting, but don't get carried away. In 2012, BTC was only $12, so a large increase is quite normal; at the beginning of 2016, it even dropped by 2.7%; the craziness of 2020 was due to the liquidity bonus from COVID relief funds, and then it crashed again in 2022.

**The situation is different now**: BTC is already at historical highs, market sentiment is at its peak, and retail investors expect prices to rise. This means that the positive news may have already been priced in. Additionally, with the economic conditions tightening this year, ordinary investors don’t have as much spare cash.

**Conclusion**: Halving is a hot topic for speculation, but it is not an automatic uptrender. History has reference value but does not guarantee repetition. Don't let the rhetoric of "history repeats itself" brainwash you; risks are always present.