Cocoa futures staged a rebound. The New York March cocoa contract rose by 0.83% today, while the London December contract fell by 2.06%. The key issue is the decline in delivery volumes at Ivory Coast ports—only 618,899 tons were delivered from October 1 to November 23 this year, a year-on-year decrease of 3.7%. This directly triggered short positions covering.

But negative factors are piling up: the EU has postponed forest logging regulations for a year, meaning that cocoa from Africa and Indonesia can continue to sell freely; West African weather is favorable, with pod production reaching a five-year high, exceeding last year's by 7%; U.S. tariff concerns have also eased. The most heartbreaking aspect is on the demand side—Asia's Q3 cocoa grind volume hit a nine-year low, Europe a ten-year low, and North America's chocolate sales plummeted by 21%.

The good news is that ICE inventories have fallen to an 8-month low, and Nigerian production is set to decrease by 11%. However, overall, global cocoa production is expected to rise by 7.8% to 4.84 million tons in 2024/25, and supply pressures have not eased. How far this rebound can go will depend on the actual performance of the West African harvest season.